Tuesday, October 20, 2020

More on Cowen's Pro-Lockdown Stance

Cowen's argument for continuing lockdowns in various forms (n.b., I realize it is now fashionable to avoid the work "lockdown" but I'm not fashionable) depends in part on the availability of vaccines. If vaccines are coming soon, then cost-benefit analysis might recommend we keep things shut down + engage in redistribution as we wait for the cure. If no vaccines will ever be available, then, given how much the virus has spread, given the fact of super spreaders, and given the lack of evidence of lockdowns in being able to stop viral spread rather than delay it, we should probably charge ahead with targeted protection a la the Great Barrington Declaration. 

I wonder if Cowen would be willing to pick a date and place a real bet about when a vaccine will be available in the US for general use, or even just for high-risk citizens. Would he be willing to bet $10,000 straight that such a vaccine will be available in April? 

Note that I am not offering such a bet. I am quite uncertain and thus want to avoid such bets.